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A narrow tape, a crypto month that still worked, and private credit's record haul

Nasdaq futures lead on Amazon, Universal Music sheds a quarter of its value, and Ares pulls in a record $36 billion as Westinghouse files confidentially for an IPO.

July 31, 2026 Markets

Breadth is thin and single-name risk is violent

Nasdaq 100 futures led U.S. index gains with an Amazon surge offsetting an Apple decline, while South Korea's Kospi surged more than 15%. Underneath, dispersion is brutal: Universal Music shed a quarter of its value on streaming concerns, and Replimune surged. Interpretation: index-level calm is masking a tape where a single thesis change — streaming economics, a clinical readout — repricing a name by double digits is routine.

Crypto ends July down but up

Bitcoin fell 1.31% since midnight UTC to $63,870 and ether dropped 1.40% to $1,890 after failing to hold the $2,000 level it touched earlier in the month. The CoinDesk 20 Index is down 2.34% on the week — pressured by the Middle East conflict and hawkish Fed comments — yet up 8.7% since June, its first positive month in three and the best in a year. The plumbing tells a less flattering story: BTIG cut its Coinbase price target on weak crypto trading volumes, so the index gain has not translated into exchange revenue.

Capital markets are open, and private credit is where the money went

Ares closed approximately $8.2 billion in new U.S. direct lending commitments in Q2 and roughly $52.3 billion over the twelve months ended June 30, while hauling a record $36 billion on private credit fundraising momentum; GAAP net income attributable to Ares was $150.6 million for the quarter. Nuclear company Westinghouse has confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO — a marker that the listing window is reopening for capital-intensive energy assets. In M&A, System1 rejected Brave Bison's revised takeover offer and Pursuit completed the sale of its Flyover business for $75 million.

New York moves against prediction markets

New York sued Kalshi in state Supreme Court, seeking to bar it from operating an unlicensed gambling business plus restitution, damages, a penalty equal to three times its gains, and $100,000 for each unauthorized offer of sports or mobile wagering. Attorney General Letitia James alleged the platform lets users aged 18 to 20 wager and lists markets on New York college teams, both barred for licensed sportsbooks; a federal judge denied Kalshi's bid to block state regulators on July 7 and rejected an injunction pending appeal on July 27. The offset is Minnesota, where a federal court granted Kalshi, Polymarket and the CFTC a preliminary injunction after finding the state ban likely conflicts with the Commodity Exchange Act. That split matters for a company that targeted a $40 billion valuation in June and added 3 million users during the World Cup, more than doubling the 2 million it reported at the start of May.

Sources

Not investment advice.