Iranian Missiles Hit US Troops, Oil Erases Its Weekly Decline

The Middle East conflict escalated to direct strikes on American forces, and the bill is landing in oil prices, an $87.6 billion supplemental request, and the input costs of the US farm economy.

Escalation resets the energy premium

Hours after the FOMC decision, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. troops, and President Donald Trump vowed to hit Iran "hard" in response. Oil surged, erasing Monday's declines, and U.S. equities fell — though S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures later turned slightly positive. The immediate market damage was contained, but the energy repricing is the durable part: crude and refined prices have remained volatile and above pre-conflict levels, and the Bank of England is now setting policy explicitly around how that shock propagates.

The fiscal tab is being written now

In late June the White House sent an $87.6 billion supplemental funding request to Congress, mostly to pay for the Iran war but also including more than $10 billion in farm aid. The House approved a $95 billion budget package in July to help fund the war, including $12 billion in farm aid, on top of a separate $12 billion in direct payments to farmers that Trump ordered distributed using tariff revenue. War financing and agricultural support are now moving through Congress as a single package, which makes the farm bloc a stakeholder in the conflict's fiscal footprint.

Costs land on the farm

Iowa farmer Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, describes diesel, fertilizer and other input costs rising as the war drags on, crop prices at concerningly low levels, and health insurance premiums more than doubling since the start of the year after Congress declined to extend federal subsidies. The tariff regime has shut off export markets US farmers rely on. The political read-through is already visible: a Fox News poll released in July found 44% of rural Americans approve of Trump, down 14 points. The White House attributes the pressure to the prior administration's trade deficit and input costs.

Supply chains are being re-shored under defense cover

Perpetua Resources, the U.S. Army and Idaho National Laboratory launched a critical minerals pilot plant to advance antimony trisulfide supply, with the Stibnite Gold Project positioned as the Army's nearest-term opportunity for a fully domestic antimony supply chain. Meanwhile the cost side of trade policy is still showing up in corporate accounts: ArcelorMittal's CFO says the company still faces a $150 million quarterly tariff hit. Defense-linked minerals get public capital while tariff-exposed industrials absorb the drag — two sides of the same policy stance.

Sources

• Crypto's resilience tested as oil rises after Iran strikes, Fed signals rates could still rise (coindesk)
• Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - July 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes (bank_of_england)
• Trump promised a 'golden age' for agriculture. Farmers in Iowa say they're still waiting (cnbc)
• Perpetua Resources, US Army, and Idaho National Laboratory Launch Critical Minerals Pilot Plant to Advance Antimony Trisulfide Supply (pr_newswire)
• ArcelorMittal still faces $150 million quarterly tariff hit, CFO says (investing_com)

Not investment advice.