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SK Hynix Posts Record Profit and Loses 15%: When Beating History Isn't Beating Expectations

Revenue up 257% and operating profit up 557% year on year still missed analyst estimates, a reminder that AI-linked earnings are now judged against supercharged forecasts rather than prior results.

July 29, 2026 Earnings

The bar, not the demand, is the problem

SK Hynix delivered exponential growth and was punished for it. Second-quarter revenue jumped 257% year on year and operating profit soared nearly 557%, with sequential gains of 51% and 61% respectively — yet both missed LSEG SmartEstimates, and shares slid more than 15%, dragging U.S.-listed shares down 9%. Cumulative first-half revenue exceeded 100 trillion won for the first time in company history. The demand signal inside the print is unambiguous: gross margin came in at 83%, which eToro's Josh Gilbert argued "doesn't exist in a market where demand is drying up; it exists in one where customers are fighting over supply." Both DRAM and NAND prices rose quarter over quarter, and the company insists the risk of memory oversupply remains "limited."

Management's answer is to spend more

SK Hynix is responding to the miss by leaning further into the cycle, guiding this year's capital expenditure to the high 40 trillion won range while promising to "secure a sound financial structure" and continuing to review shareholder returns. Operationally it plans to maximize output from existing Icheon and Yongin hubs while boosting NAND and advanced packaging in Cheongju. HBM4 entered mass shipment in the second quarter with HBM4E samples already completed, and 321-layer NAND is targeted to reach roughly half of domestic production capacity by year-end. That is a company positioning for sustained AI-server demand, not one bracing for a downturn — the tension with the share reaction is the story.

Outside memory, the prints are ordinary

The broader earnings slate lacks the drama. Visa posted double-digit revenue growth on resilient consumer spending, though the stock still slid — another case of a solid print meeting a demanding bar. FirstEnergy matched on earnings and topped on revenue, reporting second-quarter GAAP and Core Earnings of $0.50 per share, year-to-date Core Earnings of $1.22, and reaffirming both its $2.62–$2.82 full-year Core guidance and its long-term growth target. CoStar Group was the clear miss, falling 12% on disappointing revenue guidance. In resources, Aeris Resources reported quadrupled reserves and EBITDA up 78% for FY26 alongside stronger cash and output, while Northern Star posted strong FY 2026 cash flow in its fourth quarter.

The second-order AI winners are still working

Where AI exposure is indirect, results are being rewarded rather than sold. Bloom Energy sees sales topping $1 billion and raised its 2026 guidance for the second straight time, framing AI demand as a validation moment for fuel-cell technology; the stock surged. Read alongside Seagate's beat and after-hours rally, the pattern is that AI infrastructure suppliers outside the memory complex are clearing their bars while memory names are being marked against expectations that had run ahead of even record results.

Sources

Not investment advice.