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Trump Cancels Iran Strikes on a Hormuz-Opening Deal Tehran Calls a "Wish List"

The president says an agreement's "perimeters" have been reached, but Iranian officials, Israeli strikes in Gaza and a still-shut Strait of Hormuz leave the war's oil premium intact.

August 2, 2026 Geopolitics

What was actually agreed — and by whom

Trump said early Sunday he had canceled a planned attack on Iran after being asked to hold off by Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, adding that the "perimeters of a deal has been agreed to" and that it would include the "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran's nuclear threat." He said Israel joins the commitment, that the cancellation is "subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL," and that the US remains "locked and loaded and ready to go." The claim of an agreed framework rests on the US account: no Iranian confirmation of those terms appears in the reporting.

Tehran's response argues against pricing in a resolution

Iran's acting Defense Minister, Seyyed Majid Ibn Al-Reza, called the statements "part of a psychological and cognitive warfare campaign" while saying every threat is taken seriously, and state agency Fars called Trump's demands a "wish list." Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told his Saudi counterpart on Saturday that any aggression by the US and Israel, or participation by regional countries, would meet a "decisive and proportionate response," and Iran has separately threatened to strike other nations' energy fields if fresh US attacks come. The June 17 US-Iran memorandum of understanding has effectively broken down over the same two sticking points — the nuclear program and control of Hormuz shipping — and the FT's read is that Tehran, not Washington, has been setting the tempo by expanding the fight across the region. Israeli strikes killed at least four in Gaza after Trump's announcement, and US embassies in Iraq, Jordan and the UAE told citizens on Saturday to consider leaving the region immediately. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pressed Trump by phone to prioritize dialogue and de-escalation.

Energy: a 45% year-to-date gasoline move with the strait still closed

The war that began on February 28 has done the pricing work. Oil rose more than 20% in July and more than 40% for the year; WTI ended July at $84.67 a barrel and Brent rose 24% to $87.93. At the pump, GasBuddy had the US national average at $4.093 and AAA at $4.106, up roughly 45% on the year and about 30% from a year ago, with trader John Kilduff seeing $4.25 to $4.50 in August on war tensions and Ukrainian drone disruption to Russia's oil industry. The strait through which about 20% of the world's crude moved is essentially shut — two tankers got through on July 31, a tanker near Oman was struck late Friday, and a drone attack on Egypt's Damietta Port set two ships on fire. Forecasts still assume gradual normalization: J.P. Morgan sees Brent averaging $86 in Q3, $80 in Q4 and $78 at year-end, Goldman sees Brent at $80 and WTI at $75 in Q4. Against that, OPEC+ is set to raise quotas in September and then pause — added barrels arriving just as the supply-risk premium is most sensitive to headlines.

The second front: strikes inside Russia

Russia is absorbing attacks on its own territory alongside the Middle East escalation. Ukrainian drone strikes killed two people in Russia and hit a Wildberries warehouse, according to regional governors, and a bomb at a central Moscow restaurant killed three and wounded 21. The commercial-logistics target is the notable detail: the disruption is reaching civilian distribution infrastructure, not only energy and military sites — and Ukrainian drone activity is already cited as a factor in oil pricing.

Sources

Not investment advice.